Multiple reasons. First, that was the time I was initiating another new position in a quality company where I felt the downside was more protected.
The second reason has to do with fundamentals. Back then I didn't have enough visibility to project a 18% revenue CAGR on the low-end. Now this input does seem more reasonable as the company has provided more insights on Blackwell.
The third reason is more tactical. I am taking the risk of waiting for the next earnings releases, when the company will have very tough comps to deal with. As it seems now priced for perfection, even a slight miss or a deceleration in growth could take the stock down temporarily. Of course I may be wrong.
Is NVDA in your watchlist too? If yes, do you also have a entry point in mind?
Thanks a lot for sharing this contribution, Francesco.
Your transparency is super appreciated.
Question: Nvidia touched your bear case price only one month ago. Why did you decide not to start building your position back then?
Keep going!
That's a great question, Giovanni!
Multiple reasons. First, that was the time I was initiating another new position in a quality company where I felt the downside was more protected.
The second reason has to do with fundamentals. Back then I didn't have enough visibility to project a 18% revenue CAGR on the low-end. Now this input does seem more reasonable as the company has provided more insights on Blackwell.
The third reason is more tactical. I am taking the risk of waiting for the next earnings releases, when the company will have very tough comps to deal with. As it seems now priced for perfection, even a slight miss or a deceleration in growth could take the stock down temporarily. Of course I may be wrong.
Is NVDA in your watchlist too? If yes, do you also have a entry point in mind?
Thanks a lot!
What you said makes perfectly sense, Francesco.
Thanks again for the insight!
The 3rd reason might be a driver for a pull-back even in my scenario, for NVDA.
I am monitoring the company but I didn't identify an entry point so far.